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13.11.2014
06:49:19 |
Unity |
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| <a href="http://wobwccukpuz.com">Phnnameeol</a> breakdown of the topic, you should write for me too! |
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13.11.2014
06:17:13 |
Have |
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| Apologies for the mistake <a href="http://gslthlggw.com"> croercted</a> now.The Liberal Democrats consistently come first and second across almost all elections, almost everywhere locally.We have 40 councillors, compared to 8 Conservatives and zero Greens. We have run both Lambeth Southwark councils recently. We have the only non Labour MP locally (Simon Hughes), and have been consistently second in all of the other constituencies for many years. And we have come second in three out of the last four council by elections. In the fourth we missed second by one vote. |
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13.11.2014
03:26:38 |
Claudia |
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| earlier, but let me explain why they are not.1. At prneest the UK population looks to be divided 40/25/35 (resp no/yes/donot know). Spreading the 35 over the rest which is basically a standard method you come at 60+/40- (no/yes). Figures look relatively stable as well.2. It looks like a 60+ is rather on the rise than going down. You get that with every day a bad press for the Euro.3. Who can change that percentage. Basically the 2 big parties and the businesssector. Let's be honest what Merkel think is of no real importance for this percentage (it might however be in the negs).If both big parties move to the Euro sceptic camp the 'follow the leader'/go for sure effect will likely increase this percentage if both are against it will decrease likley but not necessarily.Business is probably more important. If they start in these economic bad times screaming 'bad for business lose you all your job', that will have a huge impact.4. The Tories basically had to do something with the UKIP at 10% (because that will be nearly totally at their expense) and they did.Labour saw that there are no votes to win with being Pro-EU so has moved as well. Plus this strategic move makes strategic voting Conservatives by potential UKIP voters considerably more unlikely, certainly on the EU issue.5. So we are likely at 60-65/35-40. However this assumes that the outs can hold a proper campaign that is the big ??.Business is likely strongly against an out especially when they cannot oversee the consequences (as the situation is now).6. Cards still to be played:-how to assure that an exit doesnot tank the economy. My idea is that if the outs will not have an answer on that (and they donot have one now) you can forget it that a majority will vote 'out'. People value holding their job much more than they hate the EU burocracy. This is at prneest a big negative for the out camp. It can be solved , by doing your homework. It is however not that easy. You cannot reverse 10s of international agreements that have been signed, as if it were Christmas cards iso Constitutionlike material, in a day or a week or a month or even a year. Simply technically impossible, requires in general lengthy negotiations one way or another. Not even to mention the new agreements that might be necessary for the future.7. Another card is that the population simply doesnot see the difference between a substantial reneg and an out yet. They partly might have the idea from before that it is impossible to reneg (however with everything moving it has become a possibility now). Not a 100% guaranteed one but one which is really a possibility, not a shot in the dark like before.It might even under the current circumstances be easier to do than a totally new arrangement. And the final result could be very close to an out plus a new arrangement.8. It all depends how the campaign around a referendum is done by all sides. With the out side likely having a much better chance to get a full reneg approved than a plain out (as the consequences are not known business will simply be heavily against and with a so so economy you cannot have that and it will likley swing voters massively as well.Labour doesnot really fully realise this point. But it is hard to see how they would be happy with an in/out referendum (which might lead to an out) and being the government that has to clean up the mess thereof. A reneg is much safer and they take alot of voters via the UKIP side from the Tories anyway. Labour is not really worse as it is now so fewer people will move at electionday from UKIP to the Conservatives to avoid the greater evil. http://glkjbhj.com [url=http://qfndycihu.com]qfndycihu[/url] [link=http://jemofpxp.com]jemofpxp[/link] |
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25.09.2008
22:06:44 |
2ta z 3nca |
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