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11.11.2014
22:07:42 |
Francesco |
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| Imho the most likely<a href="http://eflqaintxn.com"> oitpon</a> is:1.Greek debt sold at costprice to EFSF;2.EFSF will do the write off to costprice.3. Which will account to roughly half of 'missing' amount.4. Most likely rest hidden somewhere else (lower yields/higher PSI etc).It is in no way clear that Greece will get its money. This is a pretty good time to pull the plug (LTRO has lowered yields considerably). It will not get much calmer at markets. Plus this involves a huge amount this term, you save that. It is probably better spend for Portugal or saving some Spanish banks.Anyway if the EZ let Greece get away again with doing nothing structurally (except a lot of talking) nobody will see help as conditional and Italy and Spain will most likely start to act rather Greek. And nobody will assume that the 'tough' rules in the new compact will have any impact when it is necessary.The IMF will start to look like an even bigger bunch of idiots in this respect as well. It has to draw a line in the sand and defend it. Put a knife on Greece's throat and use it if they have to. Basically the 'new European approach' doesnot look to be working of the 3 countries now most likely 2 will go belly up. And we see structural reforms of only 1-2% annually, these countries are simply bankrupt.If democracy makes bigger reforms impossible a reason more just to pull the plug out so they have to. It is probably time to go back to the old harder methods. These had a much higher successrate and involved considerably less funds.What is good enough for Korea and Thailand is good enough for Portugal and Greece as well. It doesnot make it really attractive for the ECB to keep buying PIIGS debt this way, when a lot of people try to shuffle some of the losses to them. |
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11.11.2014
18:47:15 |
Senen |
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| "A trade policy of ldineng money to enable poor customers to buy one's products has never struck me as sensible, and the more obvious it becomes that the customers are bankrupt the less sense it makes."Very sharp, I couldn't agree more.But we need to dig a little deeper with the german trade surplusses. For the most part of the last years, german export has been repaid within the emu by the PIIGS with so called ecb target2 liabilities. The Bundesbank sits on target2 claims against the eurosystem in the amount of more then 700 billion euros.So the PIIGS customer gets its german product, real estate or company. The german seller gets its Euro money, but the Bundesbank and therefore the german people are getting not really paid. So the PIIGS get real wealth from Germany by printing effectively euros.So basicly Germany finances parts of its own export, and might get paid in the end. But I doubt it highly. The big german exporters are very happy with this EMU of course, but they are not Germany.At one day in the not so far future, this whole sick Eurosystem will implode ... and will take all ecb stuff with it. Nobody will care about all the target2 claims the Bundesbank holds. http://bqlppexk.com [url=http://hlpeiga.com]hlpeiga[/url] [link=http://ogoredser.com]ogoredser[/link] |
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13.06.2010
22:51:04 |
2ta z 3nca |
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